Recent opinion polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied for support in Espírito Santo [4].
These figures highlight the volatility of voter preferences as Brazil approaches the 2026 presidential election. The regional shifts suggest a tightening race between the current administration and the Bolsonaro camp.
Research firm Quaest, often in partnership with Genial, has tracked these trends through a series of polls conducted between April and August 2026 [1, 2, 3, 4]. In the most recent August data, both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro registered 30% of voting intentions in Espírito Santo [4].
This result follows a period of significant fluctuation. In April 2026, a poll focused specifically on voters in Pernambuco showed Lula with 56% support and Flávio Bolsonaro with 25% [1]. However, a May poll examining a national second-round scenario placed Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% [2].
By June 2026, a poll assessing first-round scenarios showed Lula with 40% of voting intentions while Flávio Bolsonaro held 28% [3]. The research firm also conducted a June 6 poll analyzing second-round intentions across 10 different states [5].
These data points illustrate a trend of declining support for the president in certain regional contexts, dropping from the 56% seen in Pernambuco to the 30% recorded in Espírito Santo, while Flávio Bolsonaro's numbers have shifted across the different survey periods [1, 4].
“Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro registered 30% of voting intentions in Espírito Santo”
The convergence of polling numbers in Espírito Santo suggests that neither candidate has secured a dominant lead in the state, reflecting a broader national trend of polarization. The discrepancy between the high support Lula saw in Pernambuco and the tie in Espírito Santo underscores the importance of regional campaigning in Brazil's proportional system.
