The Indian Meteorological Department forecast below-normal rainfall for August and September across India, citing strengthening El Niño conditions [1], [2].
This precipitation shortfall threatens agricultural productivity and could revive inflation fears as the country enters the second half of the southwest monsoon [3], [5].
According to the IMD, rainfall for August is expected to be approximately 94% of the long-term average [1]. The agency said total seasonal monsoon rainfall will reach only 90% of the long-period average [2].
Forecasters expect higher than normal temperatures to accompany the dry spell. Western India is projected to be the worst-hit region during this period [1], [4].
The suppression of the monsoon is attributed to the tightening grip of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole outlook [4], [5]. These climatic patterns typically disrupt the moisture flow required for consistent rainfall across the subcontinent.
Agricultural sectors in the west may face significant stress as the lack of rain coincides with critical crop growth stages. The IMD said it continues to monitor these atmospheric conditions to refine its projections for the remainder of the season [3].
“August rainfall is expected to be approximately 94% of the long-term average.”
A below-normal monsoon in the latter half of the season can lead to widespread crop failure and reduced reservoir levels. Because India's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, a 10% deficit in total seasonal rainfall often triggers food price inflation and impacts the national GDP.
