Political and military actors in Iran are currently contesting who will control the state's decision-making processes following the war [1, 3].
This power struggle is critical because it determines whether Iran will be governed by traditional political authority or a military-led administration. The shift could fundamentally alter the country's domestic governance and its foreign policy trajectory.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are identified as the primary holders of power [1, 2]. However, the nature of this authority is under scrutiny. Some reports said that sovereign decisions are only taken after the blessing of the Supreme Leader [1].
Other analyses suggest a different reality. The pervasive presence of the IRGC at all levels of authority fuels speculation that the military may hold the real power [2]. This perspective is intensified by the Supreme Leader's reduced visibility and absence from public view [2].
Analysts have examined several scenarios regarding the future of Iranian governance [3, 4]. The tension centers on whether the IRGC is operating as an instrument of the Supreme Leader or as an independent power center. This dynamic has become more pronounced in the period following the war, as discussed in reports from May 2026 [1, 4].
The IRGC's influence extends across multiple levels of the state hierarchy, creating a shadow structure that often overlaps with official government functions [2]. This overlap complicates the identification of a single decision-making authority, a situation that persists as the country navigates its post-war landscape [3].
“The pervasive presence of the IRGC at all levels of authority fuels speculation that the military may hold the real power.”
The contest for power in Iran suggests a transition toward a more securitized state. If the IRGC's influence continues to eclipse the political authority of the Supreme Leader, Iran may move from a theocratic republic toward a military-dominated regime, potentially increasing the risk of unilateral military actions in the region.
