China is projected to field 65 submarines by the end of 2024 [1], reducing the numerical lead held by the U.S. Navy.
This rapid expansion indicates a shift in global naval dynamics. As China invests in both production and technology, the strategic advantage the U.S. has maintained in undersea warfare is diminishing.
The U.S. Navy currently operates 71 submarines across the planet [1]. If projections hold, the gap between the two fleets will shrink to six boats [1]. This growth reflects a concerted effort by China to enhance its global naval capabilities and challenge existing maritime dominance.
Experts suggest the trend is not merely about the number of hulls but the quality of the vessels. Michael Shoebridge said China is "closing the technical gap" with the U.S. on submarine advancement.
China has focused its investment on reducing the technical disparity through advanced submarine production. This strategy allows the fleet to grow in both size and sophistication, threatening the traditional superiority of U.S. undersea operations.
The Pentagon has monitored these developments as part of broader naval assessments. The shift toward a more balanced number of vessels suggests a new era of competition in the deep-sea domain where the U.S. has long been the primary power.
“China is rapidly “closing the technical gap” with the US on submarine advancement.”
The narrowing gap in submarine numbers and technology suggests that the U.S. may lose its definitive edge in undersea stealth and deterrence. As China achieves quantitative parity, the U.S. will likely need to accelerate its own procurement and innovation to maintain a strategic advantage in contested waters.
