Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad in a new poll for the São Paulo gubernatorial race [1].
The results indicate a significant gap in voter preference as the 2026 election cycle progresses. Because São Paulo is Brazil's most populous state, the outcome often serves as a bellwether for national political trends and coalition strength.
According to the Paraná Pesquisas survey released Friday, Tarcísio de Freitas holds 45.6% of voting intentions for the first round [1]. Fernando Haddad follows with 34.1% [1]. This represents a lead margin of 11.5 percentage points [1], though the margin has narrowed from a previous lead of 13.8 percentage points [1].
In a simulated second-round runoff, the lead persists. The poll shows Tarcísio de Freitas with 51.4% and Fernando Haddad with 37.9% [2].
Voter sentiment also reflects a disparity in rejection rates between the two candidates. The survey found that 42.5% of voters reject Haddad [3], while 29.1% reject Tarcísio [3].
The poll was conducted between June 16 and June 18, 2026 [4]. The sample included 1,600 respondents across 80 municipalities in the state of São Paulo [4].
“Tarcísio de Freitas holds 45.6% of voting intentions for the first round”
The data suggests that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas possesses a stronger base of support and lower rejection rates than Fernando Haddad. While the lead has tightened slightly, the simulated second-round results indicate that Tarcísio maintains a majority of the electorate's preference, placing Haddad in a position where he must significantly reduce his rejection rate to remain competitive.
