Japan's Fisheries Agency predicts the amount of Pacific saury arriving in coastal waters from August through December will be approximately 430,000 tons [1].

This projection represents a sharp decline from the approximately 1.1 million tons recorded last year [2]. The drop is significant because Pacific saury is a staple of the Japanese diet, and a critical economic driver for fishing communities in eastern Hokkaido and other coastal regions.

According to the agency, this volume would be the lowest since 2003 [3]. Officials said that rising seawater temperatures and changing marine environments may be contributing factors, though they have not confirmed a definitive cause.

"Details are not known," a Fisheries Agency official said [4].

The scarcity is already reflecting in market values. Some reports indicate that saury has fetched auction prices as high as 440,000 yen per kilogram in August [5]. Individual fish have also been reported at extreme price points, including one sale at 88,880 yen per fish [6].

Fishermen have noted the physical changes in the remaining catch. One fisherman described the fish as small, saying, "I feel like I just saw the face. It is a cute saury" [7]. The average size of the fish is currently estimated between 100 and 110 grams [8].

Despite these projections, some reports have contradicted the scarcity narrative by mentioning periods of high catches that triggered fishing bans for the first time in over a decade [9]. However, industry experts warn that these temporary spikes do not signal a recovery of the overall resource.

Daigo Kawamoto, head of the fisheries department at Jiji Press, said that while fishing bans were implemented due to overfishing, the resource situation has not recovered and it remains unclear how long this trend will continue [10].

“"Details are not known," a Fisheries Agency official said.”

The projected collapse of the Pacific saury population highlights the volatility of Japan's marine ecosystems under the pressure of climate change. While temporary spikes in catch can lead to short-term regulatory measures like fishing bans, the long-term downward trend suggests a systemic shift in fish migration and survival. This creates an economic paradox where extreme scarcity drives auction prices to record highs, yet the industry's overall viability diminishes as the biomass reaches its lowest level in over two decades.