One Nation surge linked to collapse of trust in Australian institutions

One Nation is seeing a rise in popularity as Australians lose confidence in the country's major political parties and institutions.

This shift suggests a fundamental breakdown in the relationship between the electorate and the established political class. If the trend continues, it could permanently alter the balance of power in the Australian parliament by marginalizing traditional center-right and center-left parties.

Daniel Wild, Deputy Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs, said the surge is a reaction to a broad loss of faith. He said that the public no longer trusts the political system, the media, large corporations, and various civil-society organizations ^[1].

Wild pointed to the "Fire the Liar" campaign as a primary example of this sentiment. He said the campaign is not just about Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, but serves as a metaphor for the entire political class ^[1].

However, the rise of the party led by Pauline Hanson has not been without volatility. In the 2025 Australian federal election, One Nation received 6.4% ^[2] of the national vote. Despite that figure, recent polls through mid-2026 indicate the party has overtaken the Liberal Party in some metrics ^[2].

There is disagreement among analysts regarding the cause of this growth. While Wild attributes the rise to a sudden collapse of trust, other analyses suggest the party's growth follows long-term voter trends rather than a sudden shift ^[2].

Wild said that Australians are looking for change because they feel alienated by the current power structures ^[1]. This sentiment has allowed One Nation to position itself as the primary alternative for those disillusioned with the status quo.