Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads the latest Paraná Pesquisas poll for the São Paulo governor race.
The results indicate a strong preference for the incumbent in Brazil's most populous state, suggesting a potential path to victory in the first round of voting.
Data released on Thursday, May 21, shows a range of support for de Freitas. One report cited 45.6% [1] of intention-to-vote in a stimulated scenario, while another report placed him higher at 47.3% [2]. This puts him significantly ahead of his main rival, Fernando Haddad, who holds 34.1% [3] of the intention-to-vote.
"With 47.3% of the intentions to vote, Tarcísio opens a good margin to win already in the first round," a director from Paraná Pesquisas said [2].
The poll also highlights a disparity in voter rejection rates between the two candidates. Fernando Haddad faces a rejection rate of 42.5% [4], while Tarcísio de Freitas has a lower rejection rate of 29.1% [5].
According to the poll's methodology, the margin of error is two percentage points [6]. The survey is officially registered with the Electoral Justice under number 08639/2026 [6].
"The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), continues to be the favorite in the race for the Palácio dos Bandeirantes in 2026," the Paraná Pesquisas director said [7].
“Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads the latest Paraná Pesquisas poll for the São Paulo governor race.”
The polling data suggests that Tarcísio de Freitas has successfully consolidated a base of support and maintained a lower level of voter opposition than Fernando Haddad. If these trends hold, de Freitas could avoid a runoff election entirely by securing more than 50% of the vote, reflecting a strong mandate for the current administration's policies in São Paulo.
