The Australian Bureau of Meteorology declared on June 16, 2026, that a very strong El Niño event is now in full swing [4].
This classification signals a critical shift for the region, as the event brings an increased risk of drought, fire, and flood to eastern Australia. The intensity of this cycle may lead to some of the most extreme weather patterns on record.
Warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean triggered the event. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the conditions have met the specific criteria required to be classified as very strong.
Other forecasting bodies have noted the rapid intensification of the pattern. Forecasters said there was a 63% probability that the El Niño would become very strong during the Southern Hemisphere winter [1]. Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration doubled the likelihood of a very strong event occurring [2].
Some projections suggest that tropical Pacific waters could warm to above 2°C between November and January [3]. While the Australian agency said the event has already reached this intensity, other international forecasters have viewed the very strong status as a high-probability future outcome rather than a current reality.
Eastern Australia remains the primary impact zone for the shifting climate patterns. The Bureau of Meteorology said the event is currently active and impacting the region.
“The El Niño event is now in full swing and classified as 'very strong'.”
The discrepancy between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and international agencies like NOAA suggests a volatile transition period for Pacific sea-surface temperatures. If the event is already 'very strong' as the BoM asserts, eastern Australia faces an immediate and severe escalation in climate risks. The potential for water temperatures to exceed 2°C further indicates a high-energy system that could disrupt global weather patterns beyond the Southern Hemisphere.
