Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, said his party is expected to achieve its highest by-election percentage score in the upcoming Makerfield contest [1, 2].
The result is significant because a strong showing for Reform UK could signal a shift in voter sentiment against the current government. Farage said that a poor result for the ruling party could destabilize the leadership of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Speaking on Sky News Australia, Farage said that the level of support in Makerfield would be a critical indicator for the party's momentum [1]. While he acknowledged the uncertainty of the final tally, he described the upcoming vote as a high-stakes battle for influence in the constituency [1].
Farage linked the potential outcome of the by-election to the broader stability of the British government. He said that if certain political conditions are met, the pressure on the current administration would intensify. Specifically, he said that a victory for Andy Burnham could lead to an immediate challenge against the prime minister [1].
"I think Reform is going to get its biggest by-election percentage score… Whether it’s enough is in the lap of the gods; I do not know," Farage said [1].
He further elaborated on the potential timeline for a leadership transition if the results are unfavorable for the prime minister. "It’s going to be one hell of a contest … if Burnham wins, he challenges Starmer pretty much immediately, and there will be a new prime minister by September or October," Farage said [1].
Reform UK has positioned itself as a disruptive force in recent electoral cycles, focusing on policies that appeal to voters dissatisfied with the main political parties [1, 2]. The Makerfield by-election serves as a testing ground for whether the party can convert its national polling presence into a significant percentage of the local vote.
“"I think Reform is going to get its biggest by-election percentage score"”
This prediction reflects Reform UK's strategy to use by-elections as a proxy for national discontent. By targeting specific constituencies like Makerfield, the party seeks to demonstrate a growth in its vote share that could force the larger parties to shift their policy platforms or face internal leadership crises.
