Lebanon lacks the necessary conditions to disarm Hezbollah amid the ongoing regional war between Israel and the militant group [1].
This inability to neutralize Hezbollah undermines the Lebanese government's sovereignty and complicates international efforts to stabilize the Middle East. As the group maintains a military capacity that rivals the state's own, the risk of prolonged conflict and foreign interference increases.
Vitelio Brustolin, a professor at the Universidade Federal Fluminense and a Harvard associate researcher, said the Lebanese government cannot disarm the group due to the scale of Hezbollah's organized attacks and the wider escalation of regional confrontations [1]. The researcher said that the current environment of war has essentially closed the window of opportunity for the state to regain control over its security apparatus [2].
The instability is highlighted by recent military activity. Hezbollah said it attacked Israeli troops with a drone in northern Israel on Thursday, June 14 [4]. These actions occur against a backdrop of intense diplomatic friction and military strikes within the region.
Lebanese authorities have attempted to address the external influences fueling the conflict. On Friday, June 5, Lebanese officials asked Iran to stop interfering in the internal affairs of Lebanon [5]. Despite these requests, the group's operational capabilities remain intact, further distancing the government from its goal of total disarmament.
Brustolin's assessment suggests that the geopolitical alignment between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has created a deadlock. The escalation of hostilities has effectively buried the best chance the Lebanese state had to disarm the organization [2]. Without a significant shift in regional dynamics, the state remains unable to enforce its authority over the armed group.
“Lebanon lacks the necessary conditions to disarm Hezbollah amid the ongoing regional war”
The persistence of Hezbollah's arsenal indicates a fragmented state where a non-state actor holds more military power than the national government. Because the group is integrated into the regional proxy war between Iran and Israel, disarmament is no longer a domestic Lebanese issue but a geopolitical one that requires a broader diplomatic settlement to resolve.
