The U.S. and Iran reached a framework agreement on Monday to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz [1].
The agreement is critical because the strait serves as a primary chokepoint for global oil shipments, and the conflict has severely disrupted regional energy flows [1, 2].
While the diplomatic breakthrough allows for the resumption of maritime traffic, industry experts warn that the physical recovery of production will be gradual. Some officials said a full return to pre-war production levels could take weeks, months, or even years [1].
Recovery timelines vary by sector and operator. Vitol Bahrain said Middle East refineries could ramp up output within 40 to 60 days from the end of the crisis [3]. However, Kuwait Petroleum said it would require 10 to 12 weeks to fully restore its oil output after the strait reopens [2].
Longer-term projections suggest a more difficult climb. Sultan Al Jaber said that full oil-supply capacity will not be reached until the first half of 2027 [4]. He also said that global oil flows are expected to reach 80% of pre-crisis levels in approximately four months [4].
Other industry analysts suggest a shorter window, noting that recovery may take several months [5]. The discrepancy in timelines reflects the varying degrees of infrastructure damage, and the complexity of restarting dormant extraction and refining operations across the region [1, 5].
“Full oil-supply capacity will not be reached until the first half of 2027.”
The gap between the diplomatic resolution and the physical restoration of oil flows suggests that energy markets may remain volatile in the short term. Even with the Strait of Hormuz open, the reliance on a multi-month or multi-year recovery timeline indicates that the structural damage to production capacity was significant, preventing an immediate return to pre-war price stability.
