A powerful El Niño event has begun in 2026, bringing an increased risk of intense storms and warmer winter temperatures across Brazil [1].
This meteorological shift matters because it alters atmospheric circulation, potentially triggering severe flooding and infrastructure damage in vulnerable regions, particularly in the south. The phenomenon is driven by a rise in surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean [1, 5].
Alexandre Nascimento, a meteorologist at Nottus, said the 2026 event is a "Super El Niño," noting it is one of the most intense occurrences in decades [1]. This shift has already influenced the Southern Hemisphere's winter, which officially began at 5:24 a.m. on June 21, 2026 [2, 3].
The impact is most pronounced in Rio Grande do Sul. Meteorologists said that winds during associated storms could exceed 90 km/h [4]. These conditions create a high risk of river flooding, and urban inundation [2].
While the south faces excessive moisture, other parts of the country are experiencing a warmer-than-average winter [3]. The combination of heat and erratic precipitation patterns is expected to persist as the Super El Niño continues to influence the regional climate [3, 4].
Local authorities in the south remain on alert for sudden weather shifts. Recent patterns suggest a cycle of brief dry spells followed by violent thunderstorms, increasing the difficulty of disaster management and agricultural planning [2].
“The 2026 event is a "Super El Niño," noting it is one of the most intense occurrences in decades.”
The classification of this event as a 'Super El Niño' suggests a deviation from standard climate variability, potentially leading to systemic agricultural losses and increased emergency spending in Rio Grande do Sul. Because the phenomenon disrupts established seasonal norms—such as the expected winter chill—it may also affect crop cycles and public health patterns across the Brazilian territory.
