A new poll indicates that Fernando Haddad (PT) holds the highest rejection rating among candidates for the governor of São Paulo [1].
These figures are critical because rejection levels often determine a candidate's ability to build a winning coalition in Brazil's competitive gubernatorial elections. High rejection rates can limit a candidate's growth potential even if they have a strong base of supporters.
According to data registered under TSE number 08639/2026 [2], Haddad's rejection rating is reported at 42.5% [1]. Other reports place this figure as high as 45% [3]. In contrast, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) holds a lower rejection rating of 29.1% [1].
The disparity in these numbers suggests a challenging path for the PT candidate in the state's most populous region. While some reports suggest the rejection levels are a decisive factor for voters, other data indicates that Freitas remains the favorite in the overall race [3].
However, the validity of these specific polling results has been contested. A Reuters fact-check said it is false that any AtlasIntel poll showed Haddad ahead of Freitas for the governorship [4]. This contradiction highlights the volatility of polling data during the 2026 election cycle, a period marked by intense partisan competition.
Despite the conflicting reports, the focus on rejection ratings underscores the strategic importance of the São Paulo governorship. The race remains a focal point for national political trends, as the state serves as an economic engine for the country [5].
“Haddad's rejection rating is reported at 42.5%.”
The conflict between these polling reports and subsequent fact-checks suggests a fragmented information environment. If the higher rejection rates for Haddad are accurate, it indicates a ceiling on his support that could benefit Freitas. Conversely, the Reuters contradiction suggests that some media outlets may be misinterpreting or misrepresenting specific poll data to frame the race.
